Economic Analysis and Political Opinion

Jason Trennert, CEO of Strategas Research Partners, warns of a possible second wave of inflation in 2025 unless Trump is reelected. He advocates for a different measure of CPI that includes vital expenses like food and energy. Trennert criticizes the Biden-Harris administration's economic policies and believes that America is heading towards a recession.

U.S. Economy and Federal Reserve Interest Rates

The monthly inflation rate in the U.S. decreased in June for the first time in more than four years, giving the Federal Reserve further reason to consider lowering interest rates. This was driven by a decline in the consumer price index, with core CPI increasing slightly. The report suggests that the Fed may be closer to a rate cut in September.

Inflation Report and Federal Reserve's Response

Inflation eased slightly in April, with the consumer price index increasing 0.3% from March. Markets reacted positively, but the Federal Reserve is likely to wait for more evidence before cutting interest rates.

Economic Indicators: Jobs Report and CPI Data

Last week's inconclusive jobs data has shifted focus to this week's inflation data, which could have significant implications on the economy. The report highlights various aspects of the job market, wage growth, and inflation predictions, indicating potential tightening labor market and inflationary pressures.

US Inflation

The pace of price hikes in the US accelerated in January, with the PCE price index rising 0.3%. Core PCE inflation rose 0.4%, up 2.8% over the past 12 months. The figures were in line with Wall Street expectations.