President Trump's New Tariff Policy

President Trump promotes controversial new tariff policy as a path to greatness, dismissing fears of recession and criticizing skeptics as weak and stupid.

Corporate Credit Defaults in the US

Corporate credit defaults in the US rose after President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Canada, causing concerns in the derivatives markets. Despite the volatility, credit markets are still relatively stable due to high corporate cash balances and strong investor demand for new bonds.

Growing Risk of Recession in Financial Markets

Financial markets are signaling an increased risk of a recession due to tariff-related uncertainty and economic weakness. Market-implied probabilities from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs show a growing chance of a downturn. Various indicators like five-year Treasuries and base metals suggest a possible contraction. Despite some positive economic indicators, concerns remain high.

U.S. Economic Outlook

Americans are showing increased optimism in the U.S. economy, financial markets, and household finances. Polls indicate a surge in confidence, especially among different income levels, genders, political affiliations, and age groups. This optimism is likely to lead to increased spending and investing, with positive expectations for the stock market, economic growth, and inflation.

Call for the Dissolution of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump's pick for the Department of Health and Human Services, and Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), are under scrutiny. The article argues for the dissolution of the CFPB due to its perceived overreach and negative impact on financial markets and consumers.

DeepSeek - Chinese AI Engine and Financial Markets

DeepSeek, a Chinese-made artificial intelligence engine, caused a stir on Wall Street, leading to significant market value losses for rival AI companies. Some believe the timing of DeepSeek's release is suspicious, possibly orchestrated by the Chinese government to disrupt the market and gain an advantage. There are concerns about the accuracy of cost claims and the involvement of the CCP. The potential collaboration with ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, raises national security concerns. American tech executives may be promoting DeepSeek to secure more government grants for AI projects.