The number of workforce dropouts claiming long-term sickness benefits in the UK has reached a record high, impacting the labor market and complicating the Bank of England's plans to cut interest rates. The high number of economically inactive individuals is attributed to long-term sickness and other factors like early retirement and studying. Pay growth remains strong, leading to concerns of inflationary pressures and potential interest rate adjustments.
Key Points
Record high number of people claiming long-term sickness benefits in the UK.
Economically inactive individuals on the rise, with long-term sickness being a key reason.
Strong pay growth in the labor market, leading to concerns about potential inflationary pressures.
Pros
Pay growth is strong, showing a 6% increase in average regular earnings compared to the previous year.
Stable number of job vacancies indicates some level of market stability post-pandemic peak.
High number of economically inactive individuals may prompt government action to address long-term sickness and support re-entering the workforce.
Cons
Record high number of people claiming long-term sickness benefits, impacting workforce participation.
Unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, with a decrease in the number of people in work for the first time since October 2022.
Concerns of inflationary pressures due to strong pay growth, complicating interest rate decisions.