Arizona Senate Race Rating Change
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved its rating of the Arizona Senate race from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic” due to a state Supreme Court ruling reinstating an 1864 abortion ban. The likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Ruben Gallego, is not facing any opposition for the seat being vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. The race is expected to be close and will help decide Senate control next year.
Key Points
- State Supreme Court ruling on 1864 abortion ban shifted rating
- Gallego likely to face former Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake
- Democrats seen as slight favorites to win the Senate seat
- National debate on abortion rights intensified by recent events
Pros
- Increased importance of abortion rights favoring Democrats
- Strong fundraising quarter for the likely Democratic nominee
Cons
- Republican candidate’s hard-right reputation and past controversial statements