The Impact of the U.S. Stock Market on Presidential Elections and Brokerage Transitions
The U.S. stock market is considered a reliable predictor of whether the incumbent party will win a presidential election, in contrast to the mixed messages from electronic prediction markets. Rival brokerage Robinhood has seen an increase in new customers following a transition from TD Ameritrade to Charles Schwab.
Key Points
- U.S. stock market's performance can provide insights into the potential outcome of a presidential election
- Rival brokerage firms experiencing changes in customer base following transitions
- MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert tracks investment newsletters through Hulbert Ratings service
Pros
- U.S. stock market is a reliable predictor of presidential election outcomes
Cons
- Mixed messages from electronic prediction markets can lead to disillusionment