2024 U.S. Presidential Election Forecast
Nate Silver's election model forecasted that former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by six points in the probability of winning the popular vote in November. This is the first time the model predicted Trump would defeat Biden with the popular vote. Trump also has a 68.4% probability of winning the electoral college.
Key Points
- Trump leads Biden by six points in the popular vote probability
- 68.4% chance of Trump winning the electoral college
- Model is an updated version of the previous FiveThirtyEight forecast
Pros
- Nate Silver's election model is predicting a lead for Trump in the popular vote
- Detailed methodology and explanation provided by Silver about the forecast
Cons
- Some elements of the forecast require a paid subscription
- The model has been adjusted from the previous version used in the 2020 election