2024 Presidential Election Prediction
The stock market predicts a 64% probability that Kamala Harris will win the presidential election in November based on its year-to-date performance.
Key Points
- Stock market predicts 64% chance of Kamala Harris winning
- Correlation between stock market performance and election outcome
- Probability increased from 58% in May
Pros
- Strong correlation between stock market performance and incumbent party's chances of winning
- Increase in probability from 58% in May to 64% currently