The outcome of a few rural Bavarian constituencies in the German general election could determine the future migration policy of Europe. While the AfD is unlikely to join the government, a CDU-led coalition with SPD or Greens is more probable, which may not lead to significant changes in immigration policy.
Key Points
Outcome of rural Bavarian constituencies crucial for future migration policy
Unlikelihood of CDU/AfD government formation
Potential for a CDU-led coalition with SPD or Greens post-election
Pros
Potential for serious immigration reform in Europe's largest country
Chance for a stable centre-Right coalition to address immigration issues
Cons
Unlikely participation of AfD in government for at least a decade
Limited change in immigration policy expected under CDU-led coalition with SPD or Greens