March CNBC Fed Survey on Recession Risk and Economic Outlook

SOURCE www.cnbc.com
Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025, and hiked their inflation outlook due to concerns over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs.

Key Points

  • Recession risk raised to 36% from 23% in January
  • Growth forecast for 2025 lowered, inflation outlook raised
  • Concerns over Trump administration's trade policies and tariffs
  • Federal Reserve expected to cut rates at least twice
  • Policy uncertainty creating wider range of views on the Fed

Pros

  • Survey provides insights into market sentiment and economic forecasts
  • Highlights concerns over fiscal policies and potential economic risks

Cons

  • Uncertainty in economic outlook due to policy volatility and trade tensions