Impact of Trump Administration's Tariffs on Potential Recession
The Trump administration's new tariffs on imported goods have sparked concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. and globally, prompting increased odds of a recession as per economists at investment banks. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determines recessions and defines them as a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.
Key Points
- Tariffs fueling concerns about recession
- Economists raising probability of recession
- NBER's role in defining and identifying recessions
Pros
- Increased focus on economic indicators and potential risks
- Opportunity for policy adjustments to mitigate recession
Cons
- Uncertainty and volatility in global markets
- Potential negative impact on consumer confidence and spending