Prediction of Political Instability in the U.S.
Peter Turchin's 2010 analysis predicted a spike in political instability in the U.S. around 2020 due to economic inequality, elite overproduction, and rising public debt. Recent events seem to confirm his forecast.
Key Points
- Turchin's Structural-Demographic Theory models historical forces driving cycles of political instability.
- He links periods of violence in the U.S. to generational memory cycles.
- Turchin believes America entered a 'revolutionary situation' with systemic pressures that cannot be absorbed by institutions.
Pros
- Peter Turchin's analysis from 2010 seems to have accurately predicted the growing political turbulence in the U.S.
- The warning signs identified by Turchin, such as stagnating wages and growing wealth gap, have intensified over time.
Cons
- Critics sometimes question the deterministic tone of Turchin's models.