The Impact of the U.S. Stock Market on Presidential Elections and Brokerage Transitions

The U.S. stock market is considered a reliable predictor of whether the incumbent party will win a presidential election, in contrast to the mixed messages from electronic prediction markets. Rival brokerage Robinhood has seen an increase in new customers following a transition from TD Ameritrade to Charles Schwab.

Comparison of U.S. Stock Market Performance Under Presidents Biden and Trump

The U.S. stock market has seen a 34% gain under President Joe Biden since his inauguration in 2021, outperforming the performance under former President Donald Trump at the same stage in his term. Both presidents have limited influence on market movements, with factors like COVID-19 and bipartisan support for stimulus packages driving market reactions. Biden and Trump have been exchanging jabs over stock market performance as the 2024 White House race nears.