Growing Risk of Recession in Financial Markets

Financial markets are signaling an increased risk of a recession due to tariff-related uncertainty and economic weakness. Market-implied probabilities from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs show a growing chance of a downturn. Various indicators like five-year Treasuries and base metals suggest a possible contraction. Despite some positive economic indicators, concerns remain high.

Correlation between Philadelphia Sports Wins and Stock Market Declines

The article discusses the correlation between Philadelphia sports wins and stock market declines, highlighting various historical events and indicators that are believed to predict stock market movements. However, it ultimately concludes that these indicators are unreliable and that one's portfolio is not affected by sports outcomes. It also promotes a CNBC online course on AI skills and offers a discount code for enrollment.

Federal Reserve Interest Rates and Economic Slump

Breitbart News economics editor John Carney believes that a few months of economic weakness are not enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, despite signs of a slump in the economy.

Inflation

The personal consumption expenditure price index for services excluding housing and energy rose at the fastest pace since March 2022, indicating high inflation in the services sector. This is a historically rare occurrence and is seen as more persistent than goods inflation. Fed officials are closely monitoring this indicator for future inflation trends.