2024 Presidential Election Popular Vote

President-elect Donald Trump is the first Republican candidate in 20 years to win the popular vote. Social media users incorrectly claimed he lost the popular vote, confusing it with a majority of votes. Unofficial results show Trump received more votes than any other single candidate, although not a majority.

Analysis of Donald Trump's Election Victory

Despite claims of a landslide victory, the numbers show that Donald Trump's win was actually quite narrow, with a difference of about 2.5 million votes in the popular vote. The election results suggest a split in voter preferences, with some rightward shifts observed in various states.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Forecast

Statistical model predicts former President Donald Trump is heavily favored to win the election over Vice President Kamala Harris, despite her slight lead in the popular vote. Trump has a 61.3% chance of winning compared to Harris's 38.1% chance.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Forecast

Nate Silver's election model forecasted that former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by six points in the probability of winning the popular vote in November. This is the first time the model predicted Trump would defeat Biden with the popular vote. Trump also has a 68.4% probability of winning the electoral college.