The Impact of the U.S. Stock Market on Presidential Elections and Brokerage Transitions

The U.S. stock market is considered a reliable predictor of whether the incumbent party will win a presidential election, in contrast to the mixed messages from electronic prediction markets. Rival brokerage Robinhood has seen an increase in new customers following a transition from TD Ameritrade to Charles Schwab.

Legalized gambling and betting markets for everyday events

The explosion of legalized gambling has led to the rise of betting markets for everyday events, from Taylor Swift streams to hurricanes. This trend reflects Americans' increasing interest in gambling and could lead to the growth of prediction markets.