California Drought Forecast

Key Points

• Years of drought have been countered by back-to-back winters with blockbuster storms.
• Six key water reservoirs in California are near or above historical average water levels.
• The eventual strength of La Niña will impact the duration of the drought-free period.

Pros

• Abundant rain and snow in recent winters have replenished water reservoirs in California.
• High confidence that drought conditions will remain absent through at least 2025.

Cons

• Potential localized flooding concerns if warmth arrives with more intensity than historic average.
• The eventual shift from El Niño to La Niña may increase the likelihood of dry weather.

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