Early economic data for the first quarter of 2025 indicates negative growth with GDP projected to shrink by 1.5%. Factors contributing to this include lower consumer spending, weak exports, and concerns about rising inflation. The bond market is also signaling slower growth, leading to market volatility and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Key Points
GDP projected to shrink by 1.5% for Q1 2025
Consumer spending fell in January, impacting GDP contribution
Net exports contribution also decreased significantly
Bond market signaling slower growth and potential recession
Expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed
Pros
Provides insight into early economic indicators for the first quarter of 2025
Highlights factors contributing to negative growth such as lower consumer spending and weak exports
Cons
High volatility in economic data and projections
Concerns about rising inflation and market uncertainty