Concerns about President Biden's Cognitive Decline and Risk of Losing Democratic Nomination

CNN's Carl Bernstein reports close allies of President Biden are concerned about his cognitive decline. Polling expert Nate Silver suggests Biden's debate performance puts him at risk of not being the Democratic nominee in November. Silver predicts Trump likely wins in a showdown with Biden.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Forecast

Nate Silver's election model forecasted that former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by six points in the probability of winning the popular vote in November. This is the first time the model predicted Trump would defeat Biden with the popular vote. Trump also has a 68.4% probability of winning the electoral college.

Forecast on Presidential Election by Nate Silver

Nate Silver's forecast model predicts Trump has a higher chance of winning the electoral college compared to Biden, although Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Silver suggests Biden may need to consider stepping aside if his polling numbers do not improve.

Nate Silver's Critique of President Biden's Campaign

Nate Silver, a prominent election handicapper, suggests that President Biden should reassure the public of his capability to run a campaign or step aside for a new candidate before the August nominating convention to avoid losing to Trump. Silver criticizes Biden for avoiding media appearances and calls for him to address concerns about his age. He recommends Biden do lengthy interviews with non-friendly sources to prove critics wrong.

Calls for President Biden to Reassure Voters or Step Aside

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, suggests President Biden reassure voters of his capabilities or step aside ahead of the August nominating convention. Concerns about Biden's age and ability to run a normal reelection campaign are raised. Ezra Klein also argues for Democrats to pick a new candidate at the party convention.